Without All-Stars, Hornets get upended by Grizzlies

Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2009 - Memphis, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie star O.J. Mayo scored 22 points and pulled down 16 rebounds, as the Memphis Grizzlies defeated the undermanned New Orleans Hornets, 85-80, in a poor shooting display at the FedEx Forum.

Mike Conley added 18 points and eight assists for the Grizzlies, who have won four of their last five games. Hakim Warrick totaled 15 points and 14 boards for Memphis, which shot 36.4 percent (28-of-77) from the field and set a franchise-record with 64 rebounds.

Peja Stojakovic had 23 points and seven caroms to pace the Hornets, who were without the services of two All-Stars. Point guard Chris Paul was inactive for the fourth straight game with a strained right groin, while forward David West served a one-game suspension for committing a flagrant foul type two during Sunday's 101-97 victory over Minnesota.

James Posey and Antonio Daniels scored 11 points apiece for New Orleans, which shot a lowly 29.5 percent (26-of-88) from the floor and lost for the fifth time in its last seven games.

After trailing 22-21 after the opening 12 minutes, the Grizzlies emerged with a slim 40-39 edge at the break. A Darko Milicic dunk gave the home team a 60-48 lead with 3:45 remaining in the third quarter, but New Orleans battled back, going on an 18-6 run that carried over to the fourth quarter to even things up at 66-66.

Mayo nailed a jumper and Warrick converted 1-of-2 at the foul line to make it 77-71 with about 3 1/2 minutes remaining in the game. Posey drained a three- pointer with seven seconds remaining to draw the visitors within 83-80, but Mayo sealed the win at the charity stripe.

Game Notes

Memphis small forward Rudy Gay missed his second straight contest with a strained hip flexor...Marc Gasol provided 10 points and 10 rebounds in the win for the Grizzlies, who snapped a seven-game skid against the Hornets...Memphis improved to 12-18 at home this season, while New Orleans fell to 12-11 on the road.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

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MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

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