Goya, 20, gets first European Tour win

Golf Betting Lines

03/22/2009 - Porto Santo, Portugal (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Estanislao Goya held off Callum Macaulay to win the Madeira Islands Open on Sunday, closing with a two-over 73 in the final round to claim his first European Tour victory.

Goya, a 20-year-old Argentine who was the top money winner on the Latin American tour last year, escaped with a one-shot win over a hard-charging Macaulay despite making a double-bogey on the 16th hole.

The young winner finished four rounds at Porto Santo Golfe at six-under 278 -- one of just eight players to finish under-par on the tough Seve Ballesteros- designed course.

"I am so happy to have made one of my dreams come true," Goya said.

Macaulay fired a seven-under 64 to climb from a tie for 10th into solo second place at five-under 279. His final-round score was almost 10 shots better than the day's average -- due almost entirely to a stunning back-nine finish.

The 25-year-old Scotsman birdied eight of his last nine holes -- including six in a row to end the round -- to shoot a 28 on the back side.

Amazingly, Macaulay was 11 shots off the lead when reached the No. 10 tee.

"I'm over the moon with [the finish]," he said. "I certainly couldn't do any more than I did over the back because it's not an easy golf course."

Wil Besseling (69) and Damien McGrane (72) shared third place at four-under 280, while Anthony Wall (67) finished fifth at three-under 281 and Michael Hoey (72) took sixth at two-under 282.

Thomas Aiken (71) and Joakim Haeggman (72) were the only other players to shoot under-par, finishing at one-under 283.

Goya, making just his sixth European Tour start, carried a three-shot lead into the final round and looked to be in charge of the tournament after he birdied No. 1 on Sunday.

A double-bogey at the third hole gave him a wake-up call, but Goya birdied the sixth and then strung together a series of pars that left him even-par for the round through 12 holes.

Goya's bogey at the 13th was offset by a birdie at the 14th, and he still appeared in control despite Macaulay's birdie streak. But a double-bogey at the 16th left Goya with only a one-shot lead.

Luckily for the youngster, Goya managed to par his remaining two holes for the win and a two-year exemption on tour.

"I want to be one of the best players in the world and this is one of the steps that I have to take to do that," said Goya. "It's amazing that I have my tour card for the next two years and a win here in Madeira. It was just over a year ago that I was thinking how much I would love to play in Europe and here I am now having won -- it has happened so quickly."

Macaulay, making only his fifth start after earning a tour card at Q-school, tied the course record with his 64. His back-nine 28 was one stroke shy of the tour record.

"To come back in 28 is unbelievable, really. I don't think I have ever done that at my home course, never mind here on The European Tour," said Macaulay.

"It's a great result for me, and it will certainly help the confidence. I always felt that I could compete out here if I played my best and I suppose this just confirms that. It's brilliant to have finished second and I can go to the next two tournaments with a lot of belief in myself."

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com

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