Bluejays set sights on Purple Aces in MVC action

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/07/2012 - Evansville, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Knocked down a few of pegs in the latest top-25 poll, the Creighton Bluejays now head to Evansville ranked as the 17th- best team in the nation as they clash with the Purple Aces in Missouri Valley Conference action tonight at the Ford Center.

Since losing to Missouri State in the conference opener back on December 28, the Bluejays had put together a sizeable 11-game win streak which was one of the longest in Division I, but that all came crashing down over the weekend. On Saturday afternoon, Creighton was stumped by Northern Iowa on the road, 65-62, which means the Jays are now 11-2 in MVC play and that has them tied with Wichita State at the top of the league standings entering the week.

As for the Purple Aces, in a span of just three days the team went to the extremes and have now lost three of their last four outings. Six days ago, the squad leveled Bradley on the road by a score of 92-62, but then on Saturday Evansville was halted by Southern Illinois in a 53-52 final and that has the team now staring at a 6-7 conference record, which has them tied with Northern Iowa and Drake for fifth place at the moment.

The Jays are comfortably ahead in the all-time series with Evansville, posting 25 wins in 34 opportunities. The Aces have certainly played better in their own building over the years with seven victories, but still Creighton has won the last three on the road. Overall, the Bluejays have taken six in a row, including a 75-69 final in the most recent matchup last season.

Aside from a single 60-56 win for Evansville at home back in 2008, the series has been dominated by the Jays (12-1) since 2005. The teams are set to meet on Creighton's home floor two weeks from now to complete the season series.

Doug McDermott put together a solid double-double for the Bluejays with 18 points and 12 rebounds, yet he didn't lead his own team in either category exclusively and that should have been reason enough to believe it wasn't Creighton's day on Saturday. Matching McDermott on the glass was Gregory Echenique, and surpassing him in the scoring department was Antoine Young who dropped in 23 points, shooting 9-of-21 from the floor, as the group made good on 42.1 percent from the field and just 5-of-16 behind the three-point line. McDermott, one of the top scorers in the country (23.4 ppg) who is widely considered a candidate for player of the year honors on a national scale, is one of the hardest players to cover for a defense because he is equally as dangerous in the paint with his 8.4 rpg as he is out on the perimeter with a staggering 51.3 percent shooting from three-point range. Because of his efforts, the Jays as a whole are making good on 44.8 percent beyond the arc as they net an average of 81.0 ppg.

Over the course of just a few days, the Purple Aces had their scoring output nearly cut in half as they fell to SIU in Carbondale, shooting just 18-of-44 from the floor which means they finished with just two more made baskets than they had turnovers. Colt Ryan posted 13 points and Kenny Harris another 10 for the Aces, the former accounting for two of the unit's four three-point baskets. Ryan has been the leading scorer for the team in each of the last three games and five of the last six contests, his 20.8 ppg making him one of the top overall performers in the MVC this season. Not only does Ryan connect at 43.2 percent behind the three-point line, he is also one of the team leaders with 71 assists and 4.5 rpg, doing everything he can to make Evansville successful. Unfortunately, with the defense giving up 72.3 ppg and the offense posting 74.1 ppg, Ryan and his teammates don't leave much room for error.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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