Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
05/14/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lightly raced Acting Happy shook loose down the stretch to win Friday's 86th running of the $175,000 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 1/8 mile race for three-year-old fillies is the sister event to Saturday's Preakness Stakes.
Nine fillies entered the starting gate for the annual renewal of the Black- Eyed Susan. When the gate opened several of the starters broke in a tangle.
Taking the early lead was Khancord Kid followed closely by Acting Happy on the outside. Running right behind the top two horses were post-time favorite Tidal Pool and Harissa.
The top four runners kept their positions up the backstretch. Entering the far turn C C's Pal joined the lead group and Tidal Pool was looking for room along the rail.
Around the final turn the top five runners were bunched in a group. Tidal Pool, a slight favorite over Seeking the Title, was pinched back as the field entered the stretch.
Khancord Kid began to fade down the stretch as Acting Happy and jockey Jose Lezcano took the lead. Trained by Rick Dutrow, Acting Happy drew clear inside the furlong pole as No Such Word mounted a rally.
Acting Happy posted a 1 1/2-length victory over the late running No Such Word with Tidal Pool holding on for third. Rounding out the order of finish was Harissa, Khancord Kid, C C's Pal and Patriot Miss.
Diva Delite, ridden by Julien Leparoux, clipped heels with C C's Pal and fell entering the far turn. Seeking the Title with rider Kent Desormeaux was unable to avoid her. Both the fillies and jockeys appeared to be uninjured.
The time for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes was 1:50 on a fast track.
Owned by Jay Em Ess Stable, Acting Happy was making just her fourth career start and her first in a stakes race. Friday's victory was as a 10-1 longshot, but was worth $105,000.
The daughter of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker has now won two of four lifetime starts for $141,540. After breaking her maiden first time out, Acting Happy was second in her next two starts.
Acting Happy returned $22.20, $10.80 and $5.80. No Such Word paid $9.00 and $5.60, and Tidal Pool paid $2.60 to show.
The updated weather forecast for Saturday's Preakness Stakes indicates partly cloudy skies, winds from the West at 10 to 20 m.p.h. and a post-time temperature near 75.
<< Piller remains hot, leads BMW Charity Pro-Am by one
Greer, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Martin Piller carded a five-under 67 Friday to
take a one-stroke lead after two rounds of the BMW Charity Pro-Am.
Piller, who shared the first-round lead with Ted Potter, Jr., completed 36
holes at 13-unde
<< Jones, Pirates use late burst of offense to down Cubs
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garrett Jones collected five hits and drove in
a career-high five runs, including the tie-breaking three-run homer in the
eighth inning, to lift the Pirates to a 10-6 win over the Cubs in the opener
of a th
<< Embarrassed Wizards hope to catch Fire
Kansas City, KA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Fire travel to take on the
Kansas City Wizards in a Major League Soccer clash on Saturday night at
CommunityAmerica Ballpark.
The Wizards are trying to bounced back from an embarrass
<< Cahoon to return with Als for 2010
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Montreal Alouettes announced on Friday
that veteran wideout Ben Cahoon will return for a 13th year.
Cahoon, a Utah native and Brigham Young product, posted a league-best 89
receptions for 1,031
Former NFL lineman Hand dead at 37 >>
Walterboro, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former NFL defensive lineman Norman Hand
has reportedly passed away at the age of 37.
The news was reported by CBS news affiliate WCSC-TV in Charleston, South
Carolina. The Colleton County corone
Rangers activate Cruz from DL >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers have activated
outfielder Nelson Cruz from the 15-day disabled list.
The 29-year-old had been placed on the DL on April 27 with a strained right
hamstring.
He started two
Nationals/Rockies postponed, rescheduled for Saturday DH >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Friday night's game between the Washington
Nationals and Colorado Rockies was postponed due to inclement weather.
The game has been rescheduled as part of a split doubleheader on Saturday. The
first game w
Padres' Cabrera activated from DL >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres activated shortstop
Everth Cabrera from the 15-day disabled list Friday.
Cabrera was put on the DL April 30 due to a strained right hamstring. In 18
games this season, Cabrera is
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
NFL Football Office Pool Printable Schedules
Welcome to our free football office pool page. Run your own NFL Football Office Pool. Create your own pool, invite your friends to join. Compete with your with co-workers, friends or family for bragging rights every week. Exchange some hard hits without risk of injury -- Trash Talk with your fellow co-workers.
Football Pickem Pools: Your basic office pool format, where you pick the winner of each game, either against the spread or straight up. Spice up your pool by using confidence ranks, key picks, and other options. Pick 5 pools available. You can print NFL Football Office Pools here. Custom ranks available. Custom point spreads. Use Pro and/or College games, even D1AA games can be included. Many many other options.
Football Survivor Pools: Also known as Knockout, Suicide, Eliminator, Survival and Loser pools. Pick one team each week. If they win you advance to the next round. If they lose, you're out. The catch: You can only pick a team once. Many options like Pick a Team Only [Once,Twice,Unlimited], [1,2,3,4,5] Strikes and You're Out, Double Picks, Bye Weeks, Alias Entries and more. Very easy to set up and manage.
Football Share Pools: Pick college and/or pro football game winners using Vegas odds in our own unique Share Pool format. Accumulate points by picking pointspread and over/under winners. Risk as many points as you want on any game. The person with the most points (shares) at the end wins. Perfect for the Playoffs and Bowl Seasons.
Fantasy Football Pools: Fantasy football pool managers love our easy to use interface and custom settings. Points and head to head leagues, custom points, offline drafts, live scoring, waiver wire, trades and more. Live customer service by email or phone. $50 flat fee.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your NFL football betting needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting