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06/23/2009 - Regina, SK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record - 12-6. Playoff Result: Lost, 33-12, to British Columbia in the West Division semifinals. Stadium - Mosaic Stadium at Taylor Field. Capacity - 30,945. Colors - Green, white, black and silver
The Roughriders captured the 2007 Grey Cup, but following that accomplishment head coach Kent Austin departed for a position at Ole Miss and offensive coordinator Ken Miller became the man in charge. Despite countless injuries, Miller's squad jumped out to a 6-0 start in 2008 and looked the part of defending champions. The Roughriders, though, went just 6-6 the rest of the way and had to settle for a second-place finish in the CFL's Western Division. Although they boasted the second-best record during the regular season, the Roughriders were quickly ousted by British Columbia in the playoffs.
If Saskatchewan hopes to compete for another championship, it will need to find stability at quarterback. Darian Durant is expected to be the go-to guy this season after being part of last year's quarterback carousel. The ultra- athletic Durant can be electric, but he has been prone to mistakes and that is the biggest fear with letting him loose. Last season, Durant threw for 1,122 yards and seven touchdowns prior to suffering broken ribs. He should only improve on those numbers as the starter and he shouldn't be looking over his shoulder as backups Steven Jyles, Juan Joseph and Dalton Bell are all relatively inexperienced.
The return of Wes Cates will surely help ease Durant's transition into a full- time starter, as the 6-0, 215-pound tailback is one of the elite players in the CFL. Cates ranked second in the league in rushing yards (1,229) and first in rushing touchdowns (12) last year, and he is the type of player that can do it all. He carried the ball a whopping 216 times last season, so finding a serviceable backup will be important in order to keep Cates fresh.
Along the offensive line, Gene Makowsky and Jeremy O'Day return to form a solid nucleus and they should receive help from 2008 draft choice Jonathan St. Pierre. The Roughriders were one of the top rushing teams in '08 and they figure to be strong again thanks to this solid group of linemen.
At wideout, the Riders have several intriguing options and none more exciting than Weston Dressler. The 5-9, 164-pound import burst on to the scene last season, catching 56 balls for 1,123 yards and six touchdowns, earning CFL Rookie of the Year honors. Mix in slot back Andy Fantuz (36 catches, 488 yards) and prized free agent signee Jason Clermont (a three-time 1,000- yard receiver) and Saskatchewan has group it can certainly count on from week to week.
Saskatchewan relied on its stout defense to win games last season, but the departure of defensive coordinator Richie Hall and several key contributors will make things more difficult this time around. New coordinator Gary Etcheverry, however, has plenty of experience in the CFL and enough pieces in place to make this a solid group once again. Scott Shultz anchors the defensive line and the veteran tackle will be counted on to stop the run as well as provide valuable leadership.
The Riders lost two of three linebackers from a year ago, but the return of Sean Lucas gives the team some stability in the middle. Lucas really came into his own in 2008 and led the team in tackles with 95. He, however, will be accompanied by a relatively inexperienced group, putting more pressure on the rising star.
In the secondary, Saskatchewan will again be guided by Lance Frazier, who paced the team with five interceptions last season. Frazier, along with Eddie Davis (66 tackles) and a few new acquisitions, will help fill out a secondary that may need some time to gel before becoming effective.
As for the special teams, Jamie Boreham will once again handle the punting chores, while Luca Congi will continue with the kicking duties after making 38-of-44 field goals last season.
The Riders have some talent on the offensive side of the ball, but they will need Durant to play like a veteran if that unit is to be successful. Defensively, there is a lot of uncertainty considering the change of coach and several new faces, so this unit can not be counted on like last season. Overall, this year's club has a lot of question marks surrounding it and that could lead to a bit of a decline.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Finish: Third
<< 2009 CFL Western Preview - Calgary Stampeders
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record -
15-5. Playoff Result: Defeated Montreal, 22-14, in the Grey Cup Championship.
Stadium - McMahon Stadium. Capacity - 35,650. Colors - Red, white and black
Sixt
<< Del Potro rolls in Wimbledon opener
Wimbledon, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fifth-seeded Argentine Juan Martin
del Potro was an easy first-round winner Tuesday at Wimbledon.
The 6-foot-6 del Potro blasted speedy Frenchman Arnaud Clement 6-3, 6-1, 6-2
to set-up a second-rounde
<< Rolling Rockies shoot for another win over Angels
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ubaldo Jimenez goes for a fourth straight winning start as
the Colorado Rockies continue a three-game series with the Los Angeles Angels
of Anaheim tonight.
Jimenez is 6-6 with a 3.73 earned run average on the season and h
<< Wang gets another try as Yanks battle Braves
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chien-Ming Wang takes another crack at his first win of the
season this evening, when the New York Yankees open a three-game series with
the Atlanta Braves at Turner Field.
Wang has been absolutely miserable in his six sta
2009 CFL Western Preview - British Columbia Lions >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - West. 2008 Record
- 12-8. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-18, to Calgary in divison finals. Stadium -
B.C. Place. Capacity - 29,706. Colors - Orange, black and silver
Last season, had
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Hamilton Tigercats >>
Hamilton, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
3-15. Playoff Result: None. Stadium - Ivor Wynne Stadium. Capacity - 29,600.
Colors: Black and Gold
The 2008 season was one to forget for the Hamilton Tigerca
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Montreal Alouettes >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
11-7. Playoff Result: Lost, 22-14, to Calgary in Grey Cup Championship.
Stadium - Percival Molson Stadium. Capacity - 20,202. Colors: Red, blue,
silver, white, a
2009 CFL Eastern Preview - Toronto Argonauts >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - FACTS & FIGURES: Division - East. 2008 Record:
4-14. Playoff Result: None. Stadium - Rogers Centre. Capacity - 53,000.
Colors: Oxford blue, Cambridge blue, White
The 2008 season was a disaster for the Toron
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
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